February 8th, 2022
David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon Hansen. On the Persistence of the China Shock. Brookings Papers. BPEA Conference Drafts. September 2021.
We evaluate the duration of the China trade shock and its impact on a wide range of outcomes,
building on analyses in Autor et al. (2013a) and Acemoglu et al. (2016). This shock
plateaued in 2010, enabling study of its effects for nearly a decade past its culmination. Adverse
impacts of import competition on manufacturing employment, employment-population ratios,
and income per capita in more trade-exposed U.S. commuting zones are present out to 2019.
Reductions in population headcounts, which indicate net out-migration, register only for foreign born
workers and the native-born 25-39 years old, implying that exit from work is a primary
means of adjustment.
Link to Summary. Be sure to download the full paper from the same webpage, as well.
Washing Machine Tariffs Protected Jobs at a cost of $815,000 per job.
When taking into account all recent domestic and retaliatory tariffs, there is a net negative effect on employment.